The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward during the night session, breaking through the 400,000 mark. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 14, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward during the night session, closed at 400,300 yuan/mt, up 4.63%, driven by strong macro sentiment.

Macro: (1) According to the US Federal Register, the US relaxed regulations on the export of Nvidia H200 chips to China. Previously, US President Trump stated via social media that the US government would allow Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China. It is reported that the sales to China will be subject to approval and security review by the US Department of Commerce, and the US will also charge fees from related transactions. (2) Citing The New York Times, a US-Taiwan trade agreement is nearing completion, with tariffs on Taiwanese goods exported to the US set to drop to 15%, the same as those for Japan and South Korea. TSMC has committed to investing in at least five additional semiconductor plants in Arizona. The New York Times cited several informed sources indicating that the US and Taiwan are close to reaching a trade agreement, with US tariffs on Taiwan reduced from 20% to 15%, and TSMC increasing investment in the US by building at least five more semiconductor plants. US-Taiwan economic and trade negotiations have been delayed due to tariff issues, and the Trump administration has only announced limited trade agreements with some countries in recent months.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Spot market transactions nearly stalled yesterday, as persistently high tin prices dampened procurement enthusiasm among most downstream and end-user enterprises, with the entire market still in a wait-and-see mode.

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